UPDATE (January 27th, 2010): Hey everybody, Avatar passed Titanic as king of the box office! Isn’t that awesome? Boy, did I get that wrong. My full analysis/apology here.
ORIGINAL POST (Published January 5th, 2010):
Let me just be clear, I liked Avatar. Okay? So please don’t take this as a hit piece or trying to tear the movie down. It’s awesometown with a capital A. But now that the movie has overcome its Smurf reputation to be a breakaway success, the inevitable conversation has begun on when it will take down Titanic as the highest grossing film of all time.
As our own Mark Lorenz reported, Avatar had crossed the one billion dollar cash barrier over the weekend, and numerous stories have since emerged all but declaring Titanic finally dethroned. The problem is, none of them seemed to base their predictions off…you know, anything rational. Now, I grant you, box office results can be tricky to predict. That’s how things like Ghost Rider open to 50 million dollars.
But follow me here. The best comparison to be made is with 2008’s The Dark Knight, another film everyone in the world thought would dethrone Titanic. Dark Knight opened to $158,411,483 its first weekend, with a screen count of 4,366. Set this against Avatar’s opening week of $77,025,481 in 3,452 screens. Already we’re low, but Titanic also opened low.
By week two, Dark Knight was at $313,781,677 (4,366 screens) against Avatar’s $212,717,184 (3,456 screens).
Now it’s true that Avatar had an excellent week three, coming in at a total of $352,111,000. But that was also a holiday week that benefited from kids being out of school. It probably won’t have another week like that. Additionally, it has competition showing up as early as January 15.
The Book of Eli arrives then, bringing with it audience favorite Denzel Washington. And a week after that, both Legion and Extraordinary Measures arrive on January 22. Finally, Universal unleashes The Wolfman remake on February 12. I’m not saying those movies will be be better than Avatar, or even that great period, but they will be competitive.
One of the reasons that Titanic rode to greatness is that it went unchallenged for almost six months at the number one spot. That will almost not be the case here. The final predictor may be found in The Dark Knight’s fifth week. That was the week it saw its biggest drop without a great screen reduction (-435%), when it fell to second place behind Tropic Thunder. After that it never kept up the steam it left the gate with, and settled for fourth place. Perhaps they were calling from an unknown phone number.
Should Avatar see the same drop at week five, it probably won’t overtake Titanic either. The past Sunday saw its steepest decline at -32% from the day before. Now, should Fox continue to increase screens, or all of the movies I just mentioned somehow fail to show up opening weekend, Avatar could prove to be the tentpole-movie-that-could.
But like I said, I liked the movie and am rooting for it. Between Avatar and District 9, 2009 was a great year for original Science Fiction. I now open the floor to debate.
(Box office numbers and screen count provided by Box Office Mojo).
Comments
Danny
January 5th, 2010 - 5:56:11 AM
Avatar might not beat Titanic in domestic (US) turnover, but it might very well beat Titanic worldwide (it still havent run in Italy and China yet, fx)
1
Stephen T
January 5th, 2010 - 7:13:43 AM
Danny, I agree with your point. If Avatar does come up short on the American side, the foreign totals could make up the difference. It all depends on how those markets play out, and what that contribution actally adds to the pot.
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Stephen T
January 5th, 2010 - 7:14:30 AM
I meant to write actually, not "actally."
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me
January 5th, 2010 - 8:26:39 AM
wtf?!?Avatar is way better than Titanic!!!!btw sam worthgton is soooo hot!!!!!!!!!
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joe
January 5th, 2010 - 2:23:34 PM
i think the only reason avatar might and just might not beat titanic is that titanic had a wider audience, it's hard to get moms and older people to go see blue creatures espacialy when the trailers don't show how awesome is this movie. anyway Avatar deserves every penny spent on it ...i think i am gonna stop going back to the movies untill avatar 2 is released.
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Danny
January 6th, 2010 - 4:23:59 AM
"...i think i am gonna stop going back to the movies untill avatar 2 is released" Well, u can always go back and watch Avatar again (0;
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joe
January 6th, 2010 - 7:42:15 AM
i've watched it 3 times so far.:s.so i guess that's enough :p .at least that's what my friends r telling me.
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Joshua
January 6th, 2010 - 5:44:42 PM
Hmmm...I don't think Avatar will beat Titanic's domestic grosses, but it does have a decent shot at exceeding the 1.8 billion benchmark in worldwide receipts.
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Gloria
January 8th, 2010 - 12:58:17 PM
i only read the first sentence of ur article .. i dont want to waste my time.... avatar will beat titanic.. and then u can go cry
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tiffany
January 9th, 2010 - 8:19:31 PM
i luved avatar and the graphics were like OMf-ingG...but Titanic had such a better story...i would b a very uoset teenage girl if avatar beats titanic :(
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zasderty25
January 10th, 2010 - 6:20:01 AM
It would be nice to see a movie dethrone Titanic, but like the article says it does not have the hysterical female crowd going for it. Also, when Titanic was released people went 5+ times to see it, today sadly when many people want to see a movie that often they either download or buy a bootleg which didn't really happen when Titanic came out.
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Jarabadadallybadadad
January 10th, 2010 - 2:47:57 PM
To zasderty: People aren't downloading Avatar, at least en masse.
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derek
January 10th, 2010 - 4:17:57 PM
Only 3 weeks and 420mill plus and 900 foriegn. It will pass the 600 or fall within a few...ww it will def beat 1.2. Adjusted will be a diff story but I'm not big on the inflation rates cause money spends the same in any year and minimum wage and price ups and downs differ too much....but in the end. Who cares.....james cameron sure doesn't....top two I'm sure he's happy enough........
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Tired
January 11th, 2010 - 1:17:49 AM
Well 5 days later Avatar is nearing the 1.4 billion mark.. Let's not forget that Titanic was in theaters for almost an entire year. Avatar WILL beat Titanic; that I am 99% sure of. (referring to worldwide)
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zasderty25
January 11th, 2010 - 3:49:55 AM
To Jarabadadallybadadad: Trust me people are downloading it. Just go to isohunt and do a search for Avatar, there are over 15,000 active people with the file in just the first two results. I think it is completely stupid to download something like that, but it does hurt box office figures. Not to mention all the shady stores that are selling copies for three or four dollars. As far as beating Titanic, it is going to come down to how it holds up from here on out. I will say this this past weekend numbers were very impressive.
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Your review sucks
January 11th, 2010 - 3:58:05 PM
Your review sucks and I hope you die
16
Regnar
January 14th, 2010 - 5:59:28 AM
I don't care if it beats Titanic or not. I think it's pretty cool an old film like Titanic is on the top. But before you start screaming, OMG IT BEATED TITANIC, you should think about the inflation first and then calculate how much they really spend on Titanic compared to year 2009-2010.
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Regnar
January 14th, 2010 - 6:00:25 AM
BTW: Avatar rocks! :)
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kooly
January 14th, 2010 - 1:22:29 PM
avatar will beat titanic surely
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roland
January 14th, 2010 - 2:54:11 PM
To reply to Regnar , if you go talking about inflation Titanic is nothing compared to gone with the Wind , Star Wars and even Disney's Snowwhite...... So your comment is totally useless in this context. 4 and a half weeks into play and Avatar passed 1.4 billion. It will shred Titanic's all-time record before the 1st of March and it will topple Titanic domestically aswell,maybe a little later as total cume but it will nonetheless. Don't forget Avatar has still at least 11 weeks to go in the American cinema's so 150 million won't be a real challenge to overcome.
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Luke
January 15th, 2010 - 11:36:24 AM
Avatar has a sure shot chance to beat Titanic.... according to me it will end up wid $520M domestic and $1250M overseas fr a total of $1770M.... bt if it's foreign total goes up.... it vl surpass Titanic.......... Avatar is Awesome but but but Titanic is way Betr!!!!! It is Movie of the Millenium!!!!!
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Luke
January 15th, 2010 - 11:41:54 AM
i thnk i shd chnge it to $540M-$560M Domestically nd $1300M Overseas....
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Anonymous
January 15th, 2010 - 12:24:09 PM
It will be close
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Bonzo
January 15th, 2010 - 5:06:05 PM
I love The Dark Knight, but the author is wrong: TDK is a terrible comparison to Avatar (and I never thought TDK would topple Titanic). Of course TDK had double the opening; it's Batman, sillypants! He's been amassing fans though film, television and literature for DECADES! Avatar, on the other hand, is a brand new original story with no pre-existing fan base. For the same reason, New Moon opened with $50 million more than Avatar. And let's not deny that TDK's opening weekend gross was boosted by the tragic loss of the incredible Heath Ledger. But now that it's been a week and a half since this article was written, we've had more time to gauge Avatar's amazing longevity. In its fourth weekend, TDK made $26 million. Avatar just made $50 million in its fourth - nearly double TDK's equivalent take. Also, the author seemed to neglect that even by the time this article was posted, Avatar had - in just three weeks - crushed TDK's entire international gross (and easily surpassed what Titanic had made in the same amount of time). This shows that you can't always extrapolate a film's longevity from its first couple weeks. Truly great films like Titanic and Avatar don't track like typical Hollywood fare. Titanic, the highest grossing film ever, opened with just $28.6 million!
24
Fanatic69
January 17th, 2010 - 7:31:38 PM
Well it's at $1.6 billion and counting, not a doubt in my mind it'll beat Titanic.
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Barry shimauchi
January 18th, 2010 - 1:21:54 AM
Well I have to say I think your prediction will not hold true. 5 weeks straight now. Over 500 million ! With just 100 million to go. Won 2 golden globes which will give it some legs especially if it gets Oscar recognition. Avatar will take titanic
26
speedking
January 18th, 2010 - 12:21:53 PM
Sorry author, you were way off here. Avatar will without a doubt topple all records.
27
Jorgito's basement
January 18th, 2010 - 2:19:48 PM
Avatar will be second best in U.S by the 23rd of January, probably only 60 millions down Titanic, by the end of February we will have a new Best all time B.O. Movie in U.S. And it will be AVATAR, that is a fact.
28
Trizzy
January 18th, 2010 - 11:58:53 PM
I think you should rewrite your article because its only about 237 million from being the highest grossing film of all time and pretty close to be highest of all time domestically too..
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Mat
January 20th, 2010 - 6:09:49 AM
This 'article' is opinion trumped up as fact. Historical trends mean nothing, as we are about to see. Avatar will beat Titanic in less than a week. You fail!
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rudi
January 20th, 2010 - 1:13:25 PM
The mistake was to compare a novelty with a frontloaded fan driven sequel. TDK was over a 100million ahead of avatar before the second weekend in a day-to-day comparision. In the fifth weekend avatar overtook TDK in such a comparison. It is still earning more than Titanic did and will probably to so for one or two more weekends, then it will fall behind Titanic's pace, but it will be about 275million ahead of it day-to-day and this advantage should be more than enough.
31
Cole
January 20th, 2010 - 6:14:11 PM
Yes Avatar will beat Titantic for domestic and WW box office, no doubt. But will it be able to become the biggest after adjusted for inflation? Nope, and when you look at audience numbers, it is doing far less than Titanic and the other top ones because the 3D tickets are around $2-3 more than normal, with the normal tickets $4 more than when Titanic was released.
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Kevin
January 21st, 2010 - 6:24:50 AM
Betcha your eating those words now. The Titanic is going down...
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Baccha
January 21st, 2010 - 4:20:48 PM
Titanic is about to hit an iceberg that is blue. My predictions: Avatar domestic: $624 million, international: $1.95 billion
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danish
January 22nd, 2010 - 10:01:04 PM
i don't have wordings
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Dawid
January 23rd, 2010 - 1:20:08 AM
Fail.
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MarkZ
January 23rd, 2010 - 6:50:28 PM
At 1/23/2010, with Avatar WW box office already at 1,719,000,000.00, its pretty clear that Avatar will blast the Titanic record - even with the China shutdown... Cameron has the magic. PERIOD! Titanic (which I liked but didn't love) was not an accident of the times as so many have argued, it was a first blast out of the park by a talented visionary. Avatar (which I love) is a blast out of the local area code by a seasoned, talented visionary at the top of his game. GO GO King of the World! Genius like yours changes the world... for the better!
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Alex
January 23rd, 2010 - 8:00:32 PM
Avatar almost beat Titanic today. blog FAIL. lol
38
Monixrawwr
January 23rd, 2010 - 11:12:55 PM
dude, I live in shanhai..and all the theaters and IMAX are ALL OUT OF TICKETS...and there won't be any after 1-2 weeks...my friends and i didn't get the tickets yet -_-'' trust me its going to beat titanic...crazy as heck here in china
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gerbal
January 24th, 2010 - 12:31:06 AM
Worldwide I think Avatar will beat Titanic it's already at around 1.7 and its only been 1 month while it took Titanic a year to get that much money domestically it may not beat it but worldwide.....
40
jakesully
January 24th, 2010 - 10:59:43 AM
Its 1/24/2009 today and Avatar is only left with 6 million dollars to beat Titanic's record! EPIC FAIL!!!
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whothoughttitaniccouldsinktwicelol!!!!!!
January 24th, 2010 - 11:46:22 AM
jack can you here me. This is Rose,I have something terrible to tell you. I just found out Where about to get are asses handed to us by some blue cat people. Now dont freak out on me Jack, we all saw this coming so i need you to handle this well ok........(other end of the line)BANG!!!!!!!!!. jack, are you there jack, please jack don't do this to me! damitt Jack dont do this to me! I was the one who was suppose to take the easy way out not you! You know what fuck it will go together. you ready jack here i come.......BANG!!!!......owwwwwwweeeeyyy!!!BANG!!!....BANG!!!.... ahhh for fuck sake this is rediculus.....BOOM!!!!!!!!!...... Yeah AVATAR is that good!!!
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bryan
January 24th, 2010 - 12:57:17 PM
hahahaha. I give them credit for leaving this up though... they could have yanked it down and pretended like it wasn't written.
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avafan
January 24th, 2010 - 1:44:51 PM
6 million away pew pew
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Danny
January 25th, 2010 - 1:48:40 AM
It is not 100% sure it will usrpass Titanic worldwide, and 99% sure it wil surpass Titanic in the US. The Titanic has sunk, ladies and gentlemen. The new question is where will it stop? Will it make 2 billions worldwide? I think so. Will it make 1 billion in the US? Probably not. My guess is 700-800 million. Overall: impressive. Cant wait for the sequel
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Danny
January 25th, 2010 - 6:03:18 AM
Sorry I meant it is NOW 100% sure it will surpass Titanic.
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barry shimauchi
January 25th, 2010 - 6:26:48 PM
You lose!
47
matthew
January 26th, 2010 - 6:42:42 AM
it is 1/26/10 it made 34,million this past weekend comon now! lol
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wola
January 26th, 2010 - 12:10:59 PM
Avatar has beaten TITANIC!!! But still, I admire this site's admins because they didn't delete this page!
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pota panalo ang AVATAR!
January 26th, 2010 - 9:25:13 PM
http://blog.gsmarena.com/avatar-dethroned-titanic-it%E2%80%99s-the-new-boxoffice-champion/ this is the link where you will see that avatar BEATS titanic!!
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Gloria
January 26th, 2010 - 9:32:01 PM
i think i was the first to comment on this article on january 8th and say that avatar would beat titanic..... i came back to see if this article is still up .... kudos..... dont become a weather man... http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/world/
51
Jorgito's basement
January 27th, 2010 - 4:02:39 AM
You should start thinking in erase this stupid post, Avatar is already the New King of the World.
52
Baccha
January 28th, 2010 - 8:20:20 AM
lol....now the people are trying to bring down Avatar by comparing it with inflation. Why didn't this question pop up when Titanic was the king. Inflation doesn't matter anymore, neither do high ticket prices, because people should be dissuaded by the high ticket prices, but the movie was a masterpiece. I can boldly say there wont be any beating Avatar for a long time, unless Jim Cameron comes up with something more marvelous.
53
woot!!!!!!
January 31st, 2010 - 12:08:09 AM
yeah avatar two is the only thing with a chance of touching avatar for a real long time. until like 70 years from now when the prices go but you know what we'll pass the torch when we get there, no whining like those fucking gone with the wind inflation bastards. it was out for like 4 years, ticket prices where cheap even for back then and no one had anything else to do. there was barley any tv no ipods no porn or atleast readily available porn and nothing to do exept choke on dirt or go see gone with the wind you give avatar those perks and it would of made 20 billion about now with inflation so fuck of gone with the wind fagots the movie sucked anyway. and im not talking about taking the amount of tickets sold and comparing or adjusting to inflation im talking about people would of shit themselves when they saw thins movie and it probably would of sold like a billion tickets world wide fools.
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ilvin
February 4th, 2010 - 6:04:28 PM
IT BEAT IT!!!..HAHA
55
eatyourwords
February 12th, 2010 - 2:48:50 AM
hahahaha . offcourse avatar was gonna beat a chick flick
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fortune teller
March 29th, 2010 - 9:19:05 PM
Avatar is coming to the end of it run, when I was telling friends weeks before it open that this movie would make 2 billion and beat Titanic, they laughed, now I laugh, Cameron, nice movie about the true nature of human wrecking the world, in 30 or 50 years this will be played again, with cameron fortelling of the earth fall and down size of population, he is a master at seeing into our future, I hope your around for it!! good night all
57
kilo543
October 10th, 2010 - 2:58:44 AM
Man fuck you guys . avatar will not beat titanic cuz titanic won everybody's hearts and did avatar win everybody's hearts uhhh NO. so STFU
58
gfndsfddfv
December 19th, 2010 - 6:24:49 AM
okay...avatar wasn't even that good, Sherlock Holmes was better movie than Avatar. Avatar is all effects. I thought Avatar was quite funny. While Titanic, the entire movie is based on the story and actors. Who can beat a movie that is mainly just based on how they acted.
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